Impact on Florida

The writer is indebted to Doctor Stephen S. Mulkey of the School for Natural Resources and the Environment of the University of Florida for granting access to his work.

Of all of the United States, the Center for Climate Strategies rates Florida as number six in terms of states contributing most greenhouse gases (GHG) to the atmosphere.

The Do Nothing Scenario

According to the highest quality, peer reviewed, science - if nothing is done to radically change the course of global warming over the next seventy years, serious consequences must be expected.

By then, global sea levels will have risen significantly, estimated to displace 200 million human beings following inundation of their homes, with vastly increased incidence of tropical diseases. Four hundred million would be expected to suffer severe water shortage. Lower crop yields would lead to widespread hunger in the developing world. In the northern hemisphere agricultural zones (subject to there being sufficient water) would move ten degrees northwards.

A third of the World's biodiversityThe genetic, species, and ecological diversity of the organisms in a given area. would have been committed to extinctionThe irrevocable elimination of species; can be a normal process of the natural world as species out-compete or kill off others or as environmental conditions change.. Most coralsmall, colonial, bottom-dwelling, marine animals that secrete external skeletons of calcium carbonate (calcite). The colonies they create with their skeletons can make enormous reef-complexes, such as the Florida Keys, the Australian Great Barrier Reef, and many coral islands in the Pacific Ocean, and other oceans. reefs and the speciesA taxonomic category subordinate to a genus (or subgenus) and superior to a subspecies or variety, composed of individuals possessing common characters distinguishing them from other categories of individuals of the same taxonomic level. In taxonomic nomenclature, species are designated by the genus name followed by a Latin or Latinized adjective or noun. dependent upon them would be lost to ocean warming and acidification due to increased assimilation of carbon dioxideCommon gas found in the atmosphere. Has the ability to selectively absorb radiation in the longwave band. This absorption causes the greenhouse effect. The concentration of this gas has been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the last three centuries due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and land-use change. Some scientists believe higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will result in an enhancement of the greenhouse effect and global warming. The chemical formula for carbon dioxide is CO₂.. Approaching a third of the Amazon basin would by then be converted from tropical forest to savanna lands. World climates would be warmer and wetter, with greater more intense periods of precipitation

1. Is any aqueous deposit, in liquid or solid form, that develops in a saturated atmosphere (relative humidity equals 100 %) and falls to the ground generally from clouds. Most clouds, however, do not produce precipitation. In many clouds, water droplets and ice crystals are too small to overcome natural updrafts found in the atmosphere. As a result, the tiny water droplets and ice crystals remain suspended in the atmosphere as clouds.
2. The state of being precipitated from a solution.

According to Sir Nicholas Stern, within 25 years of that happening, global economic costs in today's real terms would have increased by a fifth.

Consequence for Florida

Along with other locations in the World, Florida would suffer increased health risks in a warmer world, arising from increased GHG emissions and other pollutantsSomething which contaminates (water, the air, etc.) with harmful or poisonous substances. (for example, pollen levels, particulate matterParticles of dust, soot, salt, sulfate compounds, pollen, or other particles suspended in the atmospher from forest fires sparked by drought and lightning storms, desert dust blown from Africa, and increased smog). Cardiac, respiratory diseases and heat stress illnesses would increase, affecting the very young, the elderly and the poor particularly. Increased severity of storms, flooding and coastal erosion, together with further raising sea levels up to 20 inches by 2100 would exacerbate hazards to human health.

Problems from contaminated drinking water and food supplies from warmer, wetter weather would pose increased risks to health from bacterial, parasite and viral infections conveyed by animal and human wastes, and by fruits, vegetables and shellfish. The increased prevalence of insect born diseases, such as malaria, and harmful algal bloomsExplosive reproduction of algae causing harm by release of toxins must be expected to spread their toxins to hazard human health still further.

Food and quality of water supplies are likely to be compromised as warmer temperatures increase rates of evaporationEvaporation can be defined as the process by which liquid water is converted into a gaseous state. Evaporation can only occur when water is available. It also requires that the humidity of the atmosphere be less than the evaporating surface (at 100 % relative humidity there is no more evaporation). The evaporation process requires large amounts of energy. For example, the evaporation of one gram of water at a temperature of 100° Celsius requires 540 calories of heat energy (600 calories at 0° Celsius)., requiring more irrigation, leading to lower crop yields. Moreover, as sea levels rise salt water intrusion will increase, as increasing pressures to penetrate aquifers with saltier water contaminate underground fresh water supplies and reduce amounts available for consumption.

Additional do nothing consequences for Florida would likely be:

• Coastal cities will be forced to make major expenditures for building seawalls and other flood control structures.
• The rise in the heat index will make Florida a less desirable place to live and will cause increases in heat stroke and other health problems.
• Significant amounts of beach front property would be lost and suffer much greater storm damage from higher storm surges and more powerful hurricanes.
• coralsmall, colonial, bottom-dwelling, marine animals that secrete external skeletons of calcium carbonate (calcite). The colonies they create with their skeletons can make enormous reef-complexes, such as the Florida Keys, the Australian Great Barrier Reef, and many coral islands in the Pacific Ocean, and other oceans. bleaching and sea grass meadow losses from warming and more acidicHaving the properties of an acid, or containing acid; having a pH below 7.0 sea water will have devastating impacts on both sport and commercial fishing.
• Agriculture in Florida may see a short term benefit but later will be hurt by longer periods of droughtA long period without precipitation and a loss of agricultural productivity.

As Sir Nicholas Stern and Dr Stephen S. Mulkey both advocate, to delay doing something of practical consequence to impede and reverse the effects of global warming and climate changes on a global scale, increases risk of serious harm to the planet, and to our children and their children for very many generations to come.

As advisor to the State Government on strategy for Florida emissions mitigation, Professor Mulkey has proposed the following:

• Take inventory of all Florida's greenhouse gas emission sources
• Establish a greenhouse gas reporting registry for Florida
• Prepare Florida's climate action plan with emissions targets
• Introduce State standards for energy production efficiency with respect to GHG emissions
• Mandate incentives for promoting biofuels (favoring cellulosic ethanols)
• Produce a portfolio of renewable source power generation (to reduce uses of coal fired power generation)
• Mandate efficiency standards for appliances
• Apply Green building standards for state buildings
• Use market based incentives for compliance, including cap and trade

Among proactive policies proposed for Florida are the following to make positive contribution towards reducing GHG emissions and to counter impacts:

• Agriculture - Reduced crop production in SE - precision agriculture with drip irrigation - new varieties of crops - conservation tillage; pest control.
• Water resources - Extensive reserve capacity to regulate regional water scarcity - protect & enhance the Floridan aquifer.
• Sea level rise - Improve coastal elevation data - coastal land use planning; decide what to abandon.
• Forestry - Anticipate changes in productivity & speciesA taxonomic category subordinate to a genus (or subgenus) and superior to a subspecies or variety, composed of individuals possessing common characters distinguishing them from other categories of individuals of the same taxonomic level. In taxonomic nomenclature, species are designated by the genus name followed by a Latin or Latinized adjective or noun. composition - enhance the role of forests in carbon sequestration.
• Human health - Public health planning for emerging infectious diseases and heat related illness.
• Coastal ecosystemsa community of organisms, including humans, interacting with one another and the environment in which they live. - Plan for shift in distribution of mangroveTreed wetlands located on the coastlines in warm tropical climates. and salt marshCoastal wetland ecosystem that is inundated for some period of time by seawater. Plants that exist in this community have special adaptation to survive in the presence of high salinities in their immediate environment. Generally, found poleward of 30° North and South latitude ecosystems - impacts on faunaThe animals of a particular region, habitat, or geological period..
• Hurricanes - Hurricane hardening & new coastal building codes - improved evacuation routes with raised roadways avoiding flooding risks.

Cap and Trade

Carbon trading is one way to meet government-set caps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Companies can get allowances for their emissions, and if they emit less, they can sell credits to other companies that aren't meeting allowances.

While the U.S. has so far avoided such systems, many states, including Florida, are working on their own. (Local communities, too, are beginning to embrace market incentives. Gainesville Regional Utilities, for example, has cut checks to customers for reducing carbon emissions.) In its most recent session, the Florida Legislature passed an energy bill that gives the Department of Environmental Protection rule-making authority to develop a cap-and- trade regulatory program (but not before 2010).

State officials see Miami as a carbon-trading hub not only for Florida, but for the Americas, and as a key center of trade between Europe and the Americas. "From an economic point of view, it makes sense, as Miami is already a banking center, and the infrastructure is there," says Kathy Baughman McLeod, deputy chief of staff to Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink. "Unfortunately, it is also the epicenter of sea-level rise, a symbol of our state's geographic vulnerabilities."

Indeed, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has called greater Miami the world's most vulnerable spot for climate change-related losses because of the value of its property in high-risk areas. In its latest report, the Miami-Dade County Climate Change Task Force recommends 35 key changes, on everything from zoning to Everglades restoration, to help defend against sea-level rise.

The global carbon-trade market is growing fast, with a 2007 cash value of $60 billion, up about 80% from $33 billion in 2006, according to Point Carbon consulting group. Most of that was in Europe and Japan, which regulate greenhouse gases. The United States didn't sign the Kyoto Protocol, the international pledge to reduce emissions, and President Bush has opposed annual caps to decrease U.S. emissions over time. But caps are increasingly seen as inevitable here. Congress is warming up to the idea.